1. Introduction ~

The study of cyclic phenomena in nature and human society affords a unique understanding of some of the forces influencing events on Earth. Though not strictly prophetic, cycle studies provide valuable indicators that give us time to prepare for impending peaks and troughs of weather, health, economy, war, and other social and natural events.

For instance, the Analogous Solar Terrestrial Research Organization (ASTRO) in Omaha, NE, announced in 1982 that stock market highs correspond to sudden peaks of geomagnetism 86 to 92% of the time. This theory is verifiable by comparing the Dow Jones Industrial Stock Average with geomagnetic indices published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

According to stock analyst Ian McAvity (Toronto), the stock market is usually lower from the day before the full moon to three days after. The Dow Jones Average rises from the fifth day before the new moon to the fifth day after.

In 1935, L.J. Jensen, a market analyst, scientist and astrologer, observed:

"In checking economic statistics of the business cycle with the periods when the major slow planets, Saturn, Uranus and Jupiter, are 90 or 180 degrees apart in the zodiac, they are found to coincide with economic depression..."

Go Back

2. The 20-Year Cycle of US Presidential Deaths ~

L.J. Jensen was the first person to note that since 1840, when Saturn and Jupiter began to conjunct in earth signs, every US president who was elected in those periods died during his term in office. The last conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn occurred in October 1980 in the air sign Libra; president Ronald Reagan was shot soon after (but was resurrected). The next conjunction of Saturn and Jupiter will be in 23º Taurus in May 2000.

Only two presidents elected at 20-year intervals before 1840 did not die while in office: Thomas Jefferson (elected in 1800) and James Monroe (re-elected in 1820). Zachary Taylor was the only president who died in office but was not elected in a 20-year interval after another presidential death: Zachary Taylor was elected in 1848; he died of gastroenteritis in 1850.

The presidential death cycle has been analyzed by the Fisher Exact Probability test, and yields a statistical significance level of 0.00004, which is to say that there is only a very low possibility that the 20-year cycle is due to chance.

The statistical and theoretical difficulties of analyzing the 20-year cycle have been treated by the mathematician Michael Capobianco using a more conservative technique which still yields statistically significant results:

"We know (after the fact) that in the period from 1840 to 1980 there have been (so far) seven presidents who died in office. Accepting this condition of seven deaths in seven 20-year periods (1840-1860, 1860-1880, 1880-1900, 1900-1920, 1920-1940, 1940-1960, 1960-1980), one might ask how unusual it is that these seven deaths should occur in the way that they did, one per 20-year period. If the distribution of these seven deaths in the 35 presidential terms (5 per 20-year period) was due to chance, then any pattern would be just as likely as any other one. Assuming this, the probability of getting exactly one death in each 20-year period is under the understanding or condition that there are 7 deaths in the entire 160-year period is given by the following formula:

 7 5x5x5x5x5x5x5

x 5=35x34x33x32x31x30x29 =0.012

(35/7) 7x6x5x4x3x2x1

"Therefore, there is slightly better than one chance in a hundred that the 7 deaths would have occurred in this way.

Dorland has noted that there also exists a similarity between the 20-year death cycle and the double cycle in sunspots:

"There was an interval of 24.03 between the deaths of Harrison (April 4, 1841) and Lincoln (April 14, 1865). There was an interval of 16.2 years between Lincoln’s death and Garfield’s death (July 2, 1881). There was an interval of 20.18 years between Garfield’s assassination and that of McKinley (September 6, 1901). Between McKinley’s assault and the death of Harding (August 2, 1923), there was an interval of 21.9 years. Between Harding’s demise and that of Roosevelt (April 12, 1945), there was a 21.69-year interval. Between Roosevelt’s death and Kennedy’s assassination (November 22, 1963), there was an interval of 18.61 years. The average interval of 20.44 yearly is nearly the same length as the interval for the double-cycle in sunspots (21.22 years). Furthermore, the presidential deaths always occurred near the extreme dip in the sunspot cycle.

The terms of office of all the US presidents who died in office has been characterized by a conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in earth signs. In the opinion of astrologer David Williams, the force of this conjunction is the cause of the presidential death cycle:

"Conjunctions of Jupiter and Saturn, the two largest planets in our solar system, have from time immemorial been found to indicate the overthrow of governments or the deaths of heads of state when a nation’s horoscope accommodates the cycle. In the US natal chart erected for 2:17 a.m., July 4, 1776, at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Saturn rules the 8th house (Death) and is co-ruler with Uranus of the 10th House (the Presidency). Saturn is also 90o (an unfavorable angle) from Jupiter and Mars (the planet of violence). Thus, these configurations establish a sensitivity to the Jupiter-Saturn cycle in the US Presidency. Astrology divided the twelve signs of the Zodiac into the four elements: Fire, earth, Air and Water...

 

The first Jupiter-Saturn conjunction of a continuous 120-year series in a given element is considered the most basic. In the present instance, the series started with the 1842 conjunction in Capricorn, followed by the 1861 conjunction in Virgo, and the 1881 conjunction in Taurus. A second cycle started with the 1901 conjunction in Capricorn, the 1921 conjunction in Virgo, the 1941 conjunction in Taurus, and ended at the 1961 conjunction in Capricorn... Seven presidents died when their terms of office included a Jupiter-Saturn conjunction in earth signs. Although Jefferson’s term of office also included a Jupiter-Saturn conjunction in the earth sign of Virgo, the cycle was interrupted by the 1821 conjunction in the fire sign of Aries during Monroe’s term of office. It was from a consideration of the foregoing that the writer predicted... that the cycle would become inoperative in 1981 because the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction would then again fall in the air sign of Libra."

Most of the presidents who died in office under the shadow of the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction had premonitions of their death, and several psychics and astrologers offered explicit warnings which went unheeded. A great deal of a causal synchronicity has also been noted between the deaths of Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy.
 

Go Back


3. Nikolai D. Kondratieff ~

The study of economic cycles affords a uniquely objective view of capitalism, which reveals itself to be a self-correcting process distinguished by regular periods of expansion and contraction. Several major and minor cycles of business have been isolated. The longest and most important of these, called the Kondratieff Wave, is named after Professor Nikolai Kondratieff, who directed the Business Research Institute at Moscow for several years after the Russian Revolution. (2-7)

Kondratieff’s theories, which were published between 1922 and 1928, incurred the ire of the KGB, who arrested him for his alleged leadership of the Peasant’s Labor Party. He was exiled without a trial to Siberia, where he died. The official Soviet Russian Encyclopedia dismissed his work with one sentence: "This theory is wrong and reactionary."

Kondratieff analyzed the worldwide production of coal, iron, trade and price indices from the 18th century through the 1920s. He distinguished a cycle of price fluctuations, lasting between 49 and 54 years, which had occurred two and a half times since the end of the 1790s. The first cycle peaked between 1810 and 1851 and ended between 1844 and 1851. The second cycle began between 1844 and 1851, peaked from 1870-1873, and lasted until 1890-1896. The third cycle peaked from 1914-1920 and ended between 1935-1944. We are now in the declining phase of the current Kondratieff Wave.

The margin of fluctuation in the wave is due to the fact that some measures of economic phenomena peak or bottom out before others, thus making it nearly impossible to pinpoint an exact nodal point in any cycle.

A startling feature of the Kondratieff Wave is that a war has occurred just before each peak and just after each trough. Starting from a peak, the pattern is:

(a)   a 7-10 year plateau of relatively stable economic conditions, followed by

(b)   20 years of decline,

(c)   a war,

(d)   20 years of increasing prosperity and tension, culminating in

(e)   another war just before (a)

Upswings coincide with new industrial inventions and the opening of new territories. As new technologies become widely implemented, and other expansionary forces are exhausted, a period of economic contraction begins to clear away excess debt, thus preparing another upswing.

• The first Kondratieff Wave upswing (1780-1815) was due to steam power and the Industrial Revolution

• The second upswing (which peaked in 1870) came about as railroads and steamboats increased trade

• Electrical power and the internal combustion engine brought about the third upswing

• The fourth upswing was due to the introduction of plastic and consumer-durable industries

• The first peak saw the Napoleonic Wars

• the second, the American Civil War

• the third, World War One

• the fourth, the Vietnam War

These peak wars are attributed to tensions created by prosperity creating shortages of raw materials. World War II was an exception to the cyclic pattern but it did not invalidate the theory. We are presently in a decline that will bottom out at the end of the 20th century; we can expect another major war at that time.

Other economists have developed Kondratieff’s work. In 1939, the Harvard economist Joseph Schumpeter published an exhaustive two-volume study titled Business Cycles, in which he considered three major cycles:

• the Kondratieff Wave

• the 40-month Kitchin Cycle

• the 10-year Juglar Cycle

• All named after their discoverers

The Juglar Cycle occurs because businessmen increase their investments and then cut back from over-capacity. According to Schumpeter, the 40-month Kitchin Cycle produces little permanent change in the economy, but the 10-year Juglar Cycle provides a link between the long Kondratieff Wave and the short Kitchin Cycle. The Juglar and Kondratieff Cycles coincide periodically at their peaks and troughs, thus enabling economists to date major turning points in the world’s economy.(8-11)
 

Go Back


4. The Cycle of Power, Affiliation & War ~

After two decades of study which began in the 1950s, David C. McClelland, professor of psychology at Harvard University, identified a remarkable and alarming pattern of fluctuation between the psychological Need for Power and the Need for Affiliation that repeats throughout the history of the United States. McClelland and his associates found the pattern while studying the relationship between individual motivations and social changes as reflected in nations’ literature and historical events. Literature (particularly children’s stories) collected from around the world and scored for motivational content in terms of standardized meanings such as Power, Achievement, and Affiliation (working together), was found to reflect the motivational tendencies of a nation in an overall pattern which, in the past history of the United States, has typically preceded war by several years (29):

"Wars are a function of certain motivational patterns within a nation. The motives are the Need for Power (strength, authority, control over people and events) and the Need for Affiliation, or, roughly, personal love --- as both of these motives are reflected in a country’s popular literature. [In England and the United States,] when the Need for Power is high, and higher than the Need for Affiliation, war tends to follow about 15 years later...

"The Need for Affiliation rises. Once it has risen as high as an already fairly high Need for Power, it then drops, leaving the Need for Power on top. A large-scale reform movement typically follows. This reform, in time, is followed by war.

"The measured Need for Affiliation rises to match the Need for Power. This introduces a conflict, which ultimately leads to a reform movement, eventually leading to war.

"While the pattern is not necessarily one of causal relationships, it does suggest of motivations that seem to run before events, thus enabling us to predict war. We might be able to show that the human motives in question not only precede but somehow cause war. And if we could do [this], we might take an intelligent step or two toward prevention."

McClelland, et al., first studied English literature in the hope of finding patterns which might indicate a relationship between motivations and historical events:

"The overall pattern of motivations an events suggested, first of all, that a combination of high Need for Power and low Need for Affiliation was either associated with war or else led to war... Various other motive combinations --- such as low Need for Power, high Need for Affiliation, or a balance between the two --- seemed unrelated to war.

"Periods of balance were associated with religious reform and revival. And yet a balance between these two motives is apparently unstable, and what commonly happens is that Need for Affiliation drops before Need for Power. Once again, the stage is set for war... High Need for power together with low Need for Affiliation... is associated with totalitarian regimes or ruthlessness... The Power-Affiliation gap [is associated] with a high level of internal political violence... There is something about religious revival and reform that often seems to lead to war; the personalities of the reformers may be partly responsible. However altruistic and idealistic they are, their Need for Affiliation tends to remain low. We might call them lovers of mankind in the abstract rather than lovers of men and women. They are typically bent on the salvation of others regardless of anybody’s feelings in the matter. They tend, moreover, to be excellent organizers and managers, leaders and officers. This last point is crucial, for it suggests that certain idealistic individuals serve as actualizers or executors of a nation’s motivational tendencies, translating sentiments into events. If these motivations favor group discipline and hostility toward outgroups, violence could result. Organizational behavior, in other words, appears to be one basic link between the Power-Affiliation gap perceived in popular literature and the rationalized violence known as war.

"What is paradoxical about reform movements is that they have an unintended consequence; they seem to create an orientation toward action that makes war more likely. Before reformist regimes --- and in recent years during them --- the Need for Power is high, the Need for Affiliation is low, and a martial spirit prevails, which leads to zealous actions to right wrongs on behalf of the oppressed. This atmosphere of action has led to war so many times in the history of the United States and England that it is hard to think such consequences are accidental." (2, 12)

Go Back

5. ~Edward F. Dewey: Cycles of War ~

In 1950, Edward F. Dewey began to research the cycles of war. He noted every single battle for each year between 599 BC and 1952 A.D. and formulated an Index of battles. Each battle was weighted 1, 2, or 3, depending on its magnitude. By adding up the numbers, Dewey calculated an index for each year, and thus isolated and identified four cycles of war. Since 1100 A.D., international battles have been fought in rhythmic cycles that average about 11.2 years, 22.13 years, 57 years, and 142 years in length.

According to Dewey’s analysis, the "142-year pattern calls for more than an average number of battles for the 71-year period from 1914 to 1985, and a less than average number of battles from 1985 to 2056 A.D."

Dewey traced the 57-year cycle in war through three complete cycles from 1765 to 1930. The third cycle bottomed out in 1947. The fourth projected cycle peaked in 1975, and will trough about 2004 A.D.

Dewey also discovered a cycle of war occurring every 11.241 years from 600 BC to 1947 A.D. The odds of this repetition occurring by chance are only 18 in 10,000. The 21.98-22.1-year cycle has recurred 116 times over a period of 2,500 years from 600 BC to 1930. This cycle could occur by chance only 8 times in 10,000.

After his original discoveries were made in 1952, Edward Dewey discovered four more cycles in war. The average wavelengths of three of them are: 17.1 years, 17.31 years, and 5.98 years. The fourth cycle alternates between 9.6 and 12.35 years. The 9.6-year cycle is unique in that this wavelength occurs in more than 100 natural and social phenomena. The 5.9 -year cycle also manifests in many phenomena.

In the 20th century, the cycle of battles peaked between 1914 and 1918 (World War One). There was a low in 1950 (actual index: 0), and the index peaked in 1962-63 (Vietnam). (13, 14)

Go Back

6. The Wheeler Weather Cycle ~

Professor Raymond P. Wheeler (University of Kansas) compiled 20 centuries of historical records, and concluded from his studies that there exists a most important 100-year-cycle of climatic changes that influences human affairs in a profound manner.

The cycle occurs in four distinct phases, which are descriptive of worldwide conditions rather than specific areas. The four phases are disturbed by secondary leads and delays --- as much as 10 years --- in isolated and widely separated areas. Prof. Wheeler stated:

"The climatic curve is intended to represent --- as far as one curve can --- the weather trend in the world as a whole at any one time. The curve has no absolute significance. The meaning of the curve at any one time is relative to the pattern of the 100-year old cycle as a whole."

The 100-year weather cycle and its phases are not of precisely equal duration. The cycle can contract to 70 years or expand to 120. As illustrated in Figure 6.3, the cycle is divided into a warm and a cold phase, each of which has a wet and dry period. Because people are affected by weather, the cycles of weather produce similar patterns of behavior and events in history during the same phases of the century-long weather cycle. The phases are:

(1)   Cold-Dry,

(2)   Warm-Wet,

(3)   Warm-Dry, and

(4)   Cold-Wet.

We are now in a cold-dry phase, which will prevail until about 2000 A.D.

Dr. Wheeler extended his research to reveal a continuous, universal cultural pattern of "mechanism" alternating with "humanism" that occurs throughout history synchronously with the 100-year weather cycle. During the warm and humanistic phases of the historical weather cycle, emphasis is placed on holistics:

• the whole person’s relationship to the world and society

• basic laws of nature

• modernistic art and architecture

• political "statism" emphasizing nationalism, the welfare of the nation over that of individuals

In the extreme case, dictatorships and other "absolute" forms of tyrannical government emerge, including communism and socialism. Major international wars come to pass during every warm phase of the 100-year weather cycle, when nations are powerful enough to wage such wars. During the emergence of the holistic trend, this statism degenerates into despotism in its many forms. The warm weather effectively decreases human energies and birthrates, and eventually brings about economic depression and social dependence that cannot support a war effort. Aristocratic forms of social organization prevail, rather than democracy. Warm weather produces:

• luxury

• small families

• "golden ages"

• "classical" literature and art

Business booms at the end of a warm cycle, when temperatures are falling and a cold-wet phase is about to begin. Depression sets in thereafter. Such a scenario was last in effect in 1975.

During the cold and mechanistic phases of the historical weather cycle, human thought and activity is largely directed at "units" rather than whole systems: atoms, cells, numbers, individual responses, classification of data, and complexity of detail.

Cold climates make us aggressive and independent, and promote revolution, civil war, and anarchy, which leads eventually and ultimately to popular reforms under democratic societies, large families, simple lifestyles, "romantic" literature and "dark ages". Over 90% of the rulers and leaders who have been titled "great" and called "good" by historians held their positions during the cold-dry nation-building phases of the 100-year weather cycle. They helped lead their people out of the chaos marked by class riots, assassinations, and sabotage. Dr. Wheeler wrote:

"In short, there has been a pattern on the cold side that has transposed from one cold period to another throughout history, a pattern whose extreme form has been anarchy pure and simple, ranging from wars, intrigue and treachery among the governors and their loyal followers to commercial war, race and religious riots, and armed civil war among the governed. All this is the fanatic aspect of cold times. The "lethargic" aspect has always assumed the form of neglect, debauchery, and extravagance on the part of the rulers and the upper classes, and listlessness, pauperism, begging, itineracy, rapine and vagabondage among the lower classes.

"[The cold-dry phase is characterized by] General individualism, with weak governments, migrations, and other mob actions such as race riots. Class struggles, and civil wars ranging from palace intrigues to revolutions occur during the general anarchy of the Cold-Dry period. People are cosmopolitan and epicurean, borrowing culture and living by the superficial and skeptical philosophies.

"[The cold-dry phase is marked by major geophysical phenomena, including] an increase in the severity of earthquakes and volcanoes... a lowering of continental altitudes, with marine invasions on the upswings and mountain building on the downswings."

Weather is coldest during the cold-dry phase. Near the end of the cold-dry phase, societies become stabilized by strong leadership, reformed governments, and a revival of nationalism. The wars in this phase are expansionary and imperialistic. The transition from the cold-dry to the following warm-wet period is characterized by a revival of learning, burgeoning genius, industrial revolution, and bountiful crops. Human behavior is improved by the high energy level:

"With increased vigor as a base (whatever the physiological causes may be), optimum conditions for an abundance of available energy for work occur during the period of climatic normality and on the upward crossing, or transition, from cold to warm. This is the "springtime" of the climatic cycle, while the preceding cold period was the "wintertime". On the upswing, more than in any other place on the cycle, the human race possesses energy, above that necessary for a maintenance of the physiological engine... Here, mental and physical energy are at a maximum: hence the appearance of both good leadership and good followership; economic and political aggressiveness and enthusiasm; ability to exercise more self-control and make better judgments; predominance of constructive measures and the absence of decadent modes of behavior. With all of these are associated a greater incidence of genius, a generally higher birthrate, a more stable behavior, and a higher moral tone of society. Moreover, physical conditions are then the most favorable for economic prosperity and for the growth of stationary societies, dominated by city life, for rainfall is ample and crops are good.

"The Golden Ages of history, the best in human health and leadership, cultural output, the great periods of economic and political growth and expansion, have occurred after a toughening process has been going on that has revitalized the race and the biological level. Moreover, during cold times cultures came in contact with one another during migrations, travel exploration and colonization --- all of which extended to some extent into the earlier part of the warm period.

"In the hands of a new generation, a fresh natural spirit wells up, and revolts occur against frustration. Enthusiasm, optimism, and aggressiveness, organized through a social revolution, result in a new state... As democratic government continues, it tends to become bureaucratic --- either in the hands of leftovers from the previously dominant aristocracy or in the hands of a new generation of rulers who have come into power through intrigue, wealth or some other form of leverage. A new set of rebellions breaks out following the dry years of the cold side; and during these rebellions, effort is made to overcome the evils of decadence in the democratic pattern, or the tyranny left over from the previous warm times...

"A strong leader comes to the front. A new Golden Age is on, and a new cycle of imperialism begins. The revolutions result at first in the democratic reforms, because they begin on the cold side. Were it to remain cold, these reforms would remain; but as it becomes warmer, the more power the "radical" party assumes.

"After a reign of terror, the new spirit coalesces into a strong, centralized government which, from the standpoint of individual rights, is reactionary.

"During cold times the government usually attempts to control the persecution of racial or other minorities, but during the warm droughts, persecutions almost always have been government-sanctioned or government-promoted events.

"The warm-wet phase sees the climax of organized accomplishments characterized by cooperative, integrated efforts rather than individual achievements. Governments become centralized and inflexible.

"During periods of warm-dry weather, "good" (i.e., democratic) governments decline and decay under bureaucratic tyranny and plutocracy or dictatorial oligarchy. Totalitarian governments reach their climax when temperatures are highest during the warm-dry phase of the 100-year weather cycle. Concerning this, Dr. Wheeler wrote:

"It is only on the upswing and during the early part of the warm period that strong governments manifested "good" qualities such as liberality, constructiveness, benevolence, humanitarianism, foresight and stability.

"As the warm period continues, as imperialism increases, and as the state becomes militarized, the reactionary movement becomes absolutistic and totalitarian, whether under a king, a Duce, a Fuhrer or a "dictatorship of the proletariat". The latter, by the way, is a complete misnomer as far as realities are concerned. There is no such thing as a dictatorship of the proletariat. The only way in which the proletariat has ever "ruled" at any time in history --- and the only way in which it can rule --- is through truly democratic movements.

"Sometimes there is a cold break in a warm period (but not a true cold phase), usually at the peak of the sunspot cycle. Then the general energy level of the populace begins to rise, and civil wars erupt. A reformed government with new leadership then comes to power...

"Thus, when it turns cold, the individual thinks of himself first. A combination of increased energy, hardship, discontent; an over-centralized and tyrannical government; disgust with growing decadence, spurs him to fight for his individual rights. Here comes the realization that society can be improved only through the work and free expression of the capable individual.

"But because the cool break is only an interruption (only one to ten years) of the longer overall warm phase, the democratic reforms implemented then cannot survive. The state subsequently depletes its economy and its people, body and soul, in continual warfare until such capabilities become utterly exhausted by the inevitable subsequent extreme warm temperatures and drought. Dr. Wheeler explained such behavior thus:

"There are, in general, two categories into which forms of insanity fall. While these are not inclusive, they cover the majority of cases. The one category includes depression, lethargy, seclusion, flight from reality, indifference, lack of emotional tone, schizophrenia, inaction. The other includes elation, overactivity, mania, excessive emotionality, belligerence and dangerous forms of paranoia. Mental deterioration or decline, then, expresses itself either way, dividing most individuals into these two psychotic groups. On the other hand, the normal individual will fluctuate, under pressure, from one mood --- the depressed and indifferent --- to the other --- the manic and overactive. In an extreme form, either mood is a sign of weakness.

"Societies revealed many of the same characteristics when they became unstable, or went into decline, on the warm side; for it was here that there broke out fanaticism, cruelty, and intolerance as measured by inquisitions, persecutions, pogroms, massacres, and tortures, all state-promoted. Either indifference of fanaticism in a people, then, is a sign of weakness.

"It turned out that the more democratic countries or states generally declined through indifference, while the totalitarian and more dynamic states declined through fanaticism. The first political "psychosis" was more often Western, and the latter, Eastern; or, the first characterized by older states that had gone through several cycles; the second, the younger states of more recent unification. In any case, the appearance of these traits was certain indication of an imminent collapse into civil war.

"Again, a combination of causes --- economic, political, psychological, biological, and climatic --- leads to the next phase in the cycle of events. Before political unity has declined, and while fanaticism is still controlling governmental policy, temperatures start dropping, and the national spirit revives and plays into the hands of a decadent and despotic leadership. This imperialism bursts forth once more and international wars break out on the warm side of the downswing.

"We have noted that there is a strong tendency for state-promoted persecutions, pogroms, and massacres to occur during the warm-dry phases of the 100-year cycle. Graphic example is the horrible treatment by the [Nazis] of Jews in World War II.

"All of this results from the fact that, whenever it is warm for an extended period, the individual becomes less important. It is then that he is killed with the least compunction; it is then that the fanatic sacrifice for the state reaches its highest combination of circumstances...

"Wars fought during downswings of the weather cycle have always evidenced more betrayals and sabotage, and less resistance to the invasion, even inviting it at times.

"The transition to the subsequent cold-wet period is marked by decadence, which degenerates further to widespread cruelty, slavery, and slaughter, further to widespread cruelty, slavery, and slaughter, as in WW2. When the average temperature falls and rainfall increases, a general revival commences with good crops and increased activity.

"During the cold-wet phase of the Wheeler Weather Cycle, government and business become decentralized. Individualism revives in a natural, emancipated behavior. Art becomes simpler, education is increasingly "mechanistic". These trends eventually climax in the anarchy characteristic of the cold-dry phase which follows.

"Absolutist governments will not thrive in a cold phase, when the invigorating or uncomfortable weather brings out increased expression of social discontent.

"The cold-wet phase is characterized by large sunspots appearing temporarily in a shortened sunspot cycle, and displays of the aurora borealis extending to temperate zones, lower temperatures, and increased storminess. The cold phases of the 100-year weather cycle are interrupted by a temperature rise during the sunspot maximum. Society experiences an increased birthrate, improved general health and mental vigor, mass migrations of the populace to rural areas, economic prosperity, international trade, and other forms of intercultural exchange."

Dr. Wheeler also was able to elucidate the presence of 500-year cycles of climate throughout 2,500 years of history. Alternate 500-year cycles produce a secondary climax of extreme cold and drought coupled with massive migrations and great revolutions of society. The end of each second 500-year cycle also marks the end of a 1,000-year cycle which Dr. Wheeler also detected. The 1,000-year cycle has a very warm period in its center. Alternate 500-year cycles always end during the warm phase in the middle of the 1,000-year cycle.

The 500-year cycle of weather is distinguished by the unusual severity of every fifth cold phase in the 100-year cycle. These have occurred in the 5th century BC, and the 1st, 5th, 10th and 15th centuries A.D. Dr. Wheeler stated:

"The turning points (between old and new civilizations) occur when cold-dry times reach their maximum severity."

Dr. Wheeler designed a "clock" of the cycles of Cold, Drought, and Civil War, illustrated in Figure 6.3. The 170-year Cycle of Civil War and the 510-year Cycle of Drought intersect at 1999, at which time we can expect another engulfing crisis. (15, 16)

Another 510-year pattern occurs in the rhythm of world dominance, alternating between the East and West. In the 510 years after about 670 BC, when the Greek and Ptolemaic empires declined, Rome entered into its peak of development. After 60 BC, Rome weakened while Asian empires developed. After 450 A.D., the Byzantine and Oriental powers declined, and Charlemagne’s empire grew, as did Britain. The next 510 years were dominated by Eastern power (Genghis and Kublai Khan, etc.). After 1470, Europe unified and extended its imperial dominion over the earth, and the United States came into power.

The next great shift of power is to the East and is exemplified by the ascendancy of China, Japan, and Russia.
We are now in the 27th cold-dry phase of the 100-year weather cycle since 540 BC, and the first such since the 1800s. This is also the fifth --- and coldest --- phase of the 6th 500-year cycle of weather determined by Dr. Wheeler. Also, we are approaching the climax of a 1,000-year weather cycle that will produce record high temperatures during the first half of the 21st century.

Furthermore, according to Dr. Wheeler, there are possible indications that we are in a period of "reversal" of the alternate 1,000-year weather cycle, in which the evolution of humanity will take a leap forward:

"A new and probably different series of species of similar general form will begin soon, and thus the Earth is about to begin a new phase of history.

"Old civilizations collapse and new civilizations are born on the tide of climatic change. The turning points occur when cold-dry times reach their maximum severity.

"The problem is to expand democracy by voluntary means, preserving democratic institutions and laws while the expansion process is being achieved. Now, during the next few decades, this new and powerful class of voters, the laborers, must, in a sense, be absorbed into the middle class and be given middle-class concepts of free enterprise and democracy. While assuming greater responsibility, they must experience success in helping democracy work, or else, when it turns warm again and centralizing trends are under way once more, there will be nothing but stagnation and ruin ahead. If this happens, the next warm period will produce a despotism as catastrophic for modern civilizations of Greece and Rome.

"By the proper emphasis upon education in our schools and by the proper cooperation between capital and management on one hand and labor on the other, such a catastrophe can be prevented. During the next few decades when both the middle class and labor are democratically minded is the time to stabilize our institutions --- enriched by the contributions and cooperation of labor --- to the end that they will not collapse in the warm periods to come.

"The conflict between labor and management contains no necessary threat to society and will not culminate in socialism or communism. When viewed in the light of historical ecology, it is only the next step and expected in the evolution of true democracy. The net result of the revolution will, in the end, be greater opportunity and freedom for all classes.

"Three main facts pertain to the rise and fall of governments, that, all through the investigation, were so invariable and their relationship to climate so precise as to challenge any attempt at explanation in general terms:

"First, there were the occurrences of Golden Ages, the rise of strong governments under superior leaders, the outburst of international wars on climatic upswings from long cold periods into the warm-wet phase of the climatic cycle.

"Second, the decline, onset of decadence, the growing excesses of centralized government, the emergence of dictators, tyranny, fanaticism, communism, and socialism, as the warm epoch continued, and as temperatures and dryness increased.

"Third, the occurrence of civil wars, rebellions, and revolutions, the origin and growth of democratic institutions and individualism, during cold periods... No law of chance can explain the fact that undemocratic trends are invariably associated with the warmer climatic phases, and democratic trends with the colder phases. No law of chance can explain why international wars so consistently predominate on the warm side and civil wars on the cold. Relationship so consistent, universal and precise point directly to a causal factor or set of causal factors."

Dr. Wheeler also found that a slight average annual temperature change will produce profound changes in human behavior:

"A difference in mean annual temperature of no greater than 1.5º F., when prevailing consistently for no longer than half a decade, is sufficient, anywhere on earth, to start changes in the human behavior pattern in one direction or the other."

Dr. Ellsworth Huntington determined the optimum temperatures for human performance to be 38º F. for mental activity, and 68-70º F. for physical action (conversion ºF - ºC). The best climate for the full range of human life ranges between the mean annual temperatures of 2-47º F. At this time the zones with such an optimal temperature range extend from Great Britain across Europe to the Black Sea and the Ural Mountains, across North America between southern Canada and the northeast and northwest USA, and Japan. The area of optimal temperature can be extended to include central China, the northern parts of Africa and South America, southeast Australia, and New Zealand.

The mean global temperature has decreased over 2.7º F. since 1945. Meanwhile, the Arctic and Antarctic ice covers have increased over 15% since 1966, and glaciers in North America and Europe have begun to advance again, whereas until 1940 they had been retreating. These and many other weather signs indicate that e are now in a Cold-Dry phase of the 100-year weather cycle, and may even be entering into a mini-Ice Age.

Go Back

7. A. Tchijevsky: The Universal Historical Process ~

Aleksandr Leonid Tchijevsky (1897-1964) was an eminent Russian interdisciplinary scientist, musician, painter, and poet. He studied world history for over 40 years to discover the "Universal Historical Process" (UHP), which he described as "the simultaneous course of social evolution in all groups of human society, dependent or independent of each other according to their geographical location." (17-19)

Tchijevsky adopted a uniform unit for measuring the statistics of the activities of human masses based primarily on the quality of the event (its importance) and its quantity (the number of humans participating). Tchijevsky generalized his method to apply to any historical event, with special consideration being given to dating the histories of 72 countries from 500 BC to 1914 (2,414 years) and made a statistical analysis that enabled him to determine the characteristics of the cycle of the UHP.

Tchijevsky found that periods of mass movement rise and fall in regular phases even in nations that had no contact with each other. This suggested to him that some external factor was causing the cycles, and he found it in the forces controlling the 11.2-year sunspot cycle. The UHP usually repeats itself 9 times in each century, synchronistically with the 11.2-year sunspot cycle:

"We must assume that there exists a powerful factor outside our globe which governs the development of events in human societies and synchronizes them with the sun’s activity; and thus we must also assume that the electrical energy of the sun is the superterrestrial factor which influences the historical process."

Tchijevsky held that the ionization of Earth’s atmosphere, caused by solar activity, stimulates mankind physiologically and psychologically:

"Therefore, solar disturbances tend to aggravate social crises, if such crises happen to exist at the time of greater solar activity."

The Universal Historical Process
 

Forty years after Tchijevsky presented his studies, Edward R. Dewey examined his work in the light of new data and found that there is a slight time lag between peaks of human excitability and sunspots. Peaks in human events precede peaks in solar indices! Dewey attributed this time lag to the effect of latitude. While the average sunspot activity occurs around 14º latitude from the solar equator, most cyclical events on Earth are located between 40-55º N. latitude. Dewey (and other scientists after him) eventually determined that the cause of this time lag resides in the planetary magnetospheric forces acting on the Sun and Earth. In addition, conjunctions of Jupiter and Saturn exert an effect. The entire sunspot cycle comprises several cycles between 7 and 16 years in length (mostly 9-15 years), of which the 11.2-year cycle is dominant.

The number of historical events increases to a maximum concurrently with the maxima of the sunspot cycle. The synchronic peaking of the universal cycle of military and social activity occurs 9 times in each century. Each cycle occurs in four phases in which the number of historical events in each and all cycles, on the average, are distributed in direct dependence upon periodic fluctuations in solar activity. Tchijevsky wrote that "The state of predisposition of collective bodies toward action is a function of the sunspot periodical activity. The rising of sunspot activity transforms the people’s potential energy into kinetic energy."

• In Phase 1 (3 years of minimum excitation, 1997-1999), the masses are indifferent to politics and militarism, being generally peaceful and tolerant. Parliamentarianism decreases, and autocracy and minority rule increases.
   

• In Phase 2 (2 years of increasing excitation, 2000-2001), the masses unite under new leaders, alliances, organizations, growth programs, and new ideas.
   

• In Phase 3 (3 years of maximum excitation, 2002-2004), the principal period of every cycle, is one of great achievements, information exchange, and psychomotoric pandemics such as insanity, revolution, war, and pathological epidemics.
   

• In Phase 4 (3 years of decreasing excitement, 2005-2007), tends toward political apathy and increased scientific and creative activity.

Four out of the last five major depressions have followed in the wake of maximum sunspot activity. Generally, the more active the sunspots, the more bullish the market.

In 1984, Dr. Robert Hope-Simpson (British Epidemiological Research Unit) reviewed all major outbreaks around the world from 1964 to 1975. He identified a chronological pattern in which the "flu seasons" were found to occur around Earth’s surface in a curve about 6 months behind the midsummer curve when the sun is directly overhead.

Dr. Hope-Simpson said that phenomena such as widely separated outbreaks of flu occur because the seasonal variation in the sun’s movements along each line of latitude activates the latent flu virus in those areas; however, he did not explain how the activation occurs. His study appears to support Tchijevsky’s theory.

See the folloing report: The Sun Goes Haywire
 

Go Back